Uncategorized Happy Anniversary Posted on March 10, 2016 By Matthew Garrott Yesterday marked the anniversary of the market’s lowest point during the financial crisis, the birth of our current bull market. A quick recap: From its previous peak on 10/10/2007, the S&P 500 dropped 55% through 3/9/2009. From 3/9/2009, the S&P 500 gained 237% (almost 19% annualized), including dividends… Read more
Uncategorized Fear of the Dark Posted on February 11, 2016February 11, 2016 By Matthew Garrott They come in the night. From the deepest dark, they reach out. Searching. Your fear sustains them. Panic slides you deeper into their grip and dawn will never break for you. You can light bonfires and set a watchman to keep them at bay, though. Light is their enemy and… Read more
Uncategorized Business as Usual Posted on January 19, 2016 By Matthew Garrott The S&P 500 is down almost 8%. It’s the worst start to a new year EVER. Is this a sign of things to come? Is the stock market doomed in 2016? Exactly how rare is a downwards move of such epic magnitude? The market has recovered from every downturn it’s… Read more
Uncategorized Sell Everything Posted on January 12, 2016 By Matthew Garrott So The Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) says 2016 will be a cataclysmic year and to “sell everything except high quality bonds”. There’s even a cute analogy, “In a crowded hall, exit doors are small. Risks are high.” So says RBS analyst Andrew Roberts. “Risks are high.” Risk is the… Read more
Uncategorized January Effect Posted on January 8, 2016 By Matthew Garrott By now, you’ve heard that the US stock market is off to the worst start to a calendar year ever. This is the sort of news that is trumpeted far and wide as humans are wired to value and pass along bad news (and to elevate the status of those… Read more
It’s Forecasting Season Posted on December 9, 2015 By Matthew Garrott From the Fairway Wealth Management Blog: As the leaves fall from the trees and the temperature starts to drop here in Cleveland, I am reminded that forecasting season is right around the corner. The same people who predicted $200+ oil, hyper-inflation, and multiple Federal Reserve rate hikes for 2015… Read more
Uncategorized 1.21 Gigawatts Posted on November 2, 2015 By Matthew Garrott On October 21st, 1985, Marty McFly went back in time 30 years to escape Libyans, save Doc Brown’s life, and turn his dad from a weenie into a hero. He also wound up with a rad 4×4, but before he could take it for a spin, Doc Brown stopped by… Read more
3rd Quarter Commentary Posted on October 6, 2015 By Matthew Garrott This year’s market movements are not unexpected nor are they out of the ordinary. The S&P 500’s average return is about 10% with an average drawdown of 14% sometime during the year. Many pundits called for a correction (stock market drop of 10% or more) this year and were lauded… Read more
Uncategorized Love Posted on October 2, 2015 By Matthew Garrott The Federal Reserve must be barraged by lonely singles looking for dating advice because they recently put out a working paper called “Credit Scores and Committed Relationships”. The Fed finds that people with similar credit scores tend to get together and that the higher the credit score, the more trustworthy… Read more
Uncategorized Federal Reserve – Data Driven? Posted on September 18, 2015 By Matthew Garrott Janet Yellen pulled the markets offside with a hard count yesterday. Instead of a hike, we heard about global weakness that suddenly warrants the Fed’s attention. The market reacted as though there was a hike – you could say we’ve been in the red zone the last two days (I… Read more