Category: Uncategorized

Preparing for the swan, it’s possible to miss out on the bull.  In my monthly commentary for Fairway, I asked “What does a 20% gain feel like?”  Spoiler alert: it feels like right now.  The S&P 500 is up about 20% since the bottom in February.  However, no sales people…

He called 5 market crashes and now has three more dates for you to worry about.  Technical analyst Sandy Jadeja is predicting financial devastation on three dates.  Well, now that I read the article, he doesn’t really say that at all, only that there will be sharp market movements in…

On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve released the minutes from its latest meeting.  The minutes of these meetings are basically a form letter now with the Fed relaying its thoughts on the economy and rates via tweaks in the vocabulary used.  Changing “modestly strong” to “strong” can move markets.  There is…

It’s been five years since the United States was stripped of its AAA credit rating by Standard and Poors.  Reports of the downgrade were filled with an array of worst case scenarios. There was worry that this would push up borrowing costs.  The 10-year was at 2.33% in 2011.  It…

My last post was about uncertainty and volatility and how even in a low vol environment like today, marketers will magnify feelings of uncertainty to sell the product of the month.  Regardless of the statistical fact that volatility is historically low, we as humans seem to be as pessimistic as…

90% of the email pitches I have gotten this year lament increased uncertainty or volatility in the markets.  That leaves me scratching my head. The idea that this year’s volatility has been problematic is laughable.  The VIX is at 12.16 (as of 7/29/2016), which is actually abnormally low.  This measure…

Freaking out about the Brexit?  Keep calm and carry on.  Investors should control what they can control.  Events like the referendum vote or the upcoming US Presidential election fall outside of that realm. Today’s market tantrum is not in reaction to any fundamental change. It is an emotional reaction to…

Cleveland toasts the NBA champion Cavaliers today.  The victory parade marks the end of a grueling season filled with ups and downs.  There were challenges on and off the court.  Some were very real (making a coaching change partway through the season).  Some were manufactured (the drama around Kevin Love…

If cutting corners in business is bad, cutting corners when your business is selling sketchy loans means disaster as Lending Club CEO Renaud Laplanche just found out.  The stock is down huge today and the CEO resigned in light of news that Lending Club didn’t deliver what it had promised…

Well it’s officially over.  The golden era of investing is no more, at least according to McKinsey & Company’s latest research.  “The forces that have driven exceptional investment returns over the past 30 years are weakening, and even reversing. It may be time for investors to lower their expectations.”  According…