News Right Said Fred Forecasting Posted on November 3, 2016 By Matt You couldn’t do a little turn on the catwalk in the 1990s without hearing Right Said Fred’s song about the tail wagging the dog. “I’m Too Sexy” lampooned fashion’s focus on the model rather than the clothes. More and more it seems that financial pundits are performing Right Said Fred… Read more
Investing Eight Years Ago Posted on October 14, 2016 By Matt Eight years ago, we were in the midst of financial crisis. Warren Buffett penned an op-ed in the New York Times encouraging investors to “Buy American, I Am”. So did you buy American? Too many investors were scrambling to do the opposite. On the front page of the New York… Read more
Fairway Harvard’s Endowment Posted on October 5, 2016October 5, 2016 By Matt Fairway’s third quarter commentary has been published. Keeping up with the Joneses has distracted Harvard’s endowment from its true mission. Here is some background on what happened: First, the actual endowment report. Harvard lost 2% over the last year, driven into the ground by what I call conspicuous sophistication. The… Read more
News Weekend Reading Posted on September 15, 2016September 15, 2016 By Matt Some articles for your down time this weekend. Don’t forget the Northeast Ohio PKD walk is this weekend! Man clocked doing 88mph in DeLorean Liz Ann Sonders – “The media, more than most, persistently look for a narrative to explain every daily move in the market. It’s rarely that simple.” Why… Read more
Due Diligence He Called It Posted on August 26, 2016 By Matt He called 5 market crashes and now has three more dates for you to worry about. Technical analyst Sandy Jadeja is predicting financial devastation on three dates. Well, now that I read the article, he doesn’t really say that at all, only that there will be sharp market movements in… Read more
Investing Fed Minutes Posted on August 18, 2016 By Matt On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve released the minutes from its latest meeting. The minutes of these meetings are basically a form letter now with the Fed relaying its thoughts on the economy and rates via tweaks in the vocabulary used. Changing “modestly strong” to “strong” can move markets. There is… Read more
News Stripped Posted on August 5, 2016 By Matt It’s been five years since the United States was stripped of its AAA credit rating by Standard and Poors. Reports of the downgrade were filled with an array of worst case scenarios. There was worry that this would push up borrowing costs. The 10-year was at 2.33% in 2011. It… Read more
News Fire hose Posted on August 2, 2016 By Matt My last post was about uncertainty and volatility and how even in a low vol environment like today, marketers will magnify feelings of uncertainty to sell the product of the month. Regardless of the statistical fact that volatility is historically low, we as humans seem to be as pessimistic as… Read more
News Uncertainty Posted on July 29, 2016 By Matt 90% of the email pitches I have gotten this year lament increased uncertainty or volatility in the markets. That leaves me scratching my head. The idea that this year’s volatility has been problematic is laughable. The VIX is at 12.16 (as of 7/29/2016), which is actually abnormally low. This measure… Read more
News Brexit Posted on June 24, 2016June 24, 2016 By Matt Freaking out about the Brexit? Keep calm and carry on. Investors should control what they can control. Events like the referendum vote or the upcoming US Presidential election fall outside of that realm. Today’s market tantrum is not in reaction to any fundamental change. It is an emotional reaction to… Read more