February 2020

Here’s how I see it.  The recovery since 4Q2018 was so smooth that the markets have been looking for a reason to sell off for a while.  Acceleration dropped after 4Q2018 fell off of the 1 year numbers.  The markets hiccuped after news of the coronavirus got really serious at the end of January.  I think the real catalyst for the selloff, though, was Bernie winning Nevada.  I’ve lived through at least two Presidents who were going to destroy democracy and wipe out the stock market.  Everything has turned out fine so far.  Even if Bernie gets elected, America will live.  So I think this is all overblown to some degree.  I was about to say to a ‘great’ degree, but this market pullback isn’t even that deep.  The average year sees a drawdown of 14%.  We had a 20% drop a little over a year ago.  The coronavirus is…

Stocks are off by about 3% this morning (as of noon on 2/24/2020) on fears that cases of coronavirus are accelerating outside of China.  Should you worry?  For the “general American public“, the answer is no.  Does that mean that only an idiot would be concerned by this?  No.  Identifying and dealing with threats is how humans have survived as a species.  It’s normal to watch the news, worry, then talk to someone about it. China China’s position as not only a supplier of goods, but also as a newly dominant source of demand for goods is a twist, though.  I will be watching Apple stock as a proxy for this story.  A good amount of Apple stuff is dependent on the Chinese supply chain.  The rising Chinese middle class loves the iPhone.  Also noted is that the ‘Trade War’ between the US and China may have softened the blow…