Opinion Goldilocks and the Three Bulls Posted on November 15, 2019 By Matt My monthly commentary for Fairway mentions three uncertainties: the trade conflict with China, Brexit, and the Fed. One way to look at it is through the lens of the beloved children’s tale of Goldilocks. I am breaking one of my rules by assigning human personality to the market, but if… Read more
Investing Putting a Name to the Fear Posted on September 25, 2019 By Matt Putting a Name to the Fear “I’m afraid there will be a recession soon.” No, you’re not. “I’m afraid the stock market will go down.” No, you’re not. “I’m afraid I will lose my money.” Close, but no. What does losing money mean? Money is not the thing we want… Read more
Investing iPhones, IPOs, and Interest Rates – The I’s Have It Posted on September 12, 2019 By Matt iPhones, IPOs, Interest Rates Lots of random news today, none of which warrants a full post from me due to either lack of opinion or lack of expertise. However, here are some places that have worthwhile views on each of these subjects. Also, don’t forget about the Northeast Ohio PKD… Read more
News A Gift That Makes a Difference Posted on September 11, 2019 By Matt 2019 Northeast Ohio PKD Walk It’s that time of year again! The 2019 Northeast Ohio PKD Walk is on September 21st. As usual, Team William will have its walking shoes on. We’ll trek through the Bedford Reservation and then head back to the Garrott house for hotdogs, burgers, and maybe… Read more
Investing Why Don’t More People Smoke? Posted on August 30, 2019 By Matt Another prominent figure in the world of finance has declared passive investing a bubble. Josh Brown has a good take on this here, saying that active investing is the true bubble. I don’t think you can declare a decades-long phenomenon (as both active and passive investing have achieved) a bubble, but we… Read more
Fun with TINA Posted on August 28, 2019 By Matt I’ve heard today’s investing environment described as TINA. There Is No Alternative. I don’t necessarily agree that this is the case, but the argument goes something like this: US Treasurys yield around 1.50% The rest of the world is yielding zero (or less!) US stocks yield 2% and the US… Read more
What Happened to the Recession? Posted on August 22, 2019 By Matt Last week was recession week as the brief yield curve inversion launched a thousand headlines promising economic destruction. Every newspaper had a recession headline or story above the fold. Although there were several days of decent market swings, the recession story seems to have run out of gas as people… Read more
When the Recovery Will End, Emotion, Controversy Posted on July 5, 2019 By Matt When Will the Recovery End? (Spoiler Alert: It’s Already Over) After 10 years, surely the end of the recovery is near? I still see investment products pitched with this kind of wording. It turns out that the recovery ended 84 freaking months ago. Since then, we’ve been in expansion. 84… Read more
News Student Loans Posted on June 26, 2019 By Matt $1.6 trillion of student loan debt is spread among 44 million Americans. More than even avocado toast or a daily latte, student loans are being blamed for Millennials not being able to afford housing (even though they are the largest home-buying cohort). Some Presidential hopefuls say they’ve got the answer… Read more
Investing Zombie Apocalypse? Posted on June 21, 2019 By Matt The bull market is (take your pick): in the late stages of the market cycle in the late innings long in the tooth Let’s get another cliche out of the way and say that bull markets don’t die of old age. Are we headed for a recession or a bear market? … Read more