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Spot the Pattern and Let Me Lie to You

This is actually a post about two different lies.  The first is the lie your brain tells you because it can’t help itself.  The second is a lie investors need to keep an eye out for when presented with market data. Spot the Pattern We all know about the market cycle.  The market goes up.  The market goes down.  There’s a chart that’s basically a sine wave that starts with an upward trend, peaks, reverses, then goes down until it troughs and rebounds to begin the cycle anew.  The market is never that neat, though, right?   Okay, sometimes it is that neat.  This is a beautiful example of the S&P 500 starting in 1997 moving through the cycle.  The first euphoric peak is the tech boom in 2000 followed by the tech crash into despair.  The rebound peaked just before the global financial crisis sent the market back into…

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Run Rich Run

Pros Versus Casuals

One of my favorite events at the NFL Combine is when NFL Network’s Rich Eisen runs the 40 yard dash.  He uses the Run Rich Run event to raise money for St. Jude’s.  It also helps give perspective to just how talented the athletes at the combine are.  Viewed on the field of play, athletes usually don’t look all that different from one another so when someone sees that Denzel Ward is 5’11” and 180 pounds, they may be tempted to think, “I could compete with that guy!”  No, you could not.  Eisen runs a 6-second 40.  Ward is at 4.3 seconds.  Rich provides the average fan a service that should be available in every sport.  I want to see an average guy swim against Michael Phelps or a group of randoms take on an Olympic curling team. Seeing the difference between a professional and an amateur on screen is helpful. …

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How Yale Beat the Market

The Yale Endowment released their 2017 report, taking a victory lap over their 20-year returns.  In their hubris, the endowment’s management team let slip the secret to beating the markets.  “[A]ctive management can be a powerful tool for institutions that commit the resources to achieve superior, risk-adjusted investment results.”  If only Harvard had thought to commit the resources to achieve superior, risk-adjusted investment results! What’s happening here is two of the planet’s greatest active managers disagree about passive investing.  Warren Buffett says most individual and institutional investors would be better off indexing.  Yale’s David Swenson argues that institutional investors with the resources to do so should just pick good funds. Check out this gem of a footnote in the report: “Yale’s 106.3% venture capital return over the past twenty years is heavily influenced by large distributions during the Internet boom. Since such a calculation assumes reinvestment of proceeds from the…

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My “Bad” Personal Finance

“Dad, can we go speed?” I always wondered if my kids would be like me.  So when William asked that question on the way to swimming lessons, I knew I could check that box.  Yep, this kid inherited the car gene.  My dad is a car guy.  By today’s standards (I enjoy driving stick), I am a car guy.  And now it seems the next generation has the bug.  What’s this got to do with personal finance?  Cars are one of the biggest targets for personal finance bloggers.  If you’re trying to live the FIRE (financially independent, retire early) lifestyle and do the whole retire in your 30s/40s thing, a car can be a huge burden on this journey. Car FIRE The FIRE crowd isn’t necessarily against cars so much as car payments.  Their arguments are air-tight and their logic is flawless.  Yes, it makes sense to buy a used…

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Garrott Boys

I’m Back, Baby!

It’s been a while since I’ve posted, but that’s because I’ve been busy with a new baby!  Baby and Mom are happy and healthy.  This is a pretty big difference from our first child who spent a ton of time in the hospital during his first two years. There’s a pretty big gap between our two kids (almost 8 years!) so a lot of people are asking us if we are ready to go through all the newborn stuff again.  Are we ready?  We’ve been playing the child-raising game on hard mode for the past 8 years.  We are reveling in changing diapers, feeding, and just holding the newest member of our family. Our child-raising experience is anchored in years of NICU units, dialysis treatments, and navigating various hardware that came with having a baby with ARPKD.  While it’s not exactly a vacation to wake up at 2 in the…

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