Spot the Pattern and Let Me Lie to You Posted on June 13, 2018August 17, 2026 By Matthew Garrott This is actually a post about two different lies. The first is the lie your brain tells you because it can’t help itself. The second is a lie investors need to keep an eye out for when presented with market data. Spot the Pattern We all know about the market… Read more
Manager Skill vs Luck Pros Versus Casuals Posted on May 10, 2018August 17, 2026 By Matthew Garrott One of my favorite events at the NFL Combine is when NFL Network’s Rich Eisen runs the 40 yard dash. He uses the Run Rich Run event to raise money for St. Jude’s. It also helps give perspective to just how talented the athletes at the combine are. Viewed on the… Read more
How Yale Beat the Market Posted on April 13, 2018August 17, 2026 By Matthew Garrott The Yale Endowment released their 2017 report, taking a victory lap over their 20-year returns. In their hubris, the endowment’s management team let slip the secret to beating the markets. “[A]ctive management can be a powerful tool for institutions that commit the resources to achieve superior, risk-adjusted investment results.” If… Read more
Manager Skill vs Luck Wrongness and a Strange Animal Posted on August 25, 2017August 17, 2026 By Matthew Garrott Investing is such a strange animal. You can be wrong and still make money. You can be right and still lose money. I have been wrong on high yield bonds for the last couple of years. I didn’t like the energy component of the space. Oil prices were falling due… Read more
Manager Skill vs Luck No, the Secret Sauce Posted on August 15, 2017August 17, 2026 By Matthew Garrott “I thought you guys had some sort of insider’s edge and that’s how you get returns for your clients’ investments…?” My friend was grilling up burgers and dogs for his kid’s birthday party while picking my brain about investing. He was surprised to find out how vanilla our investment philosophy… Read more
Manager Skill vs Luck Don’t Turn Your Portfolio into the NFL Draft Posted on April 28, 2017August 17, 2026 By Matthew Garrott The NFL draft reminds me of picking investments. Lots of hype followed by second-guessing every pick. It’s nice to acquire new talent, but the key to investing is to avoid a bust. Don’t Overthink It Leading up to the NFL draft, the experts on ESPN make and revise their mock… Read more
Manager Skill vs Luck Settling for Average Posted on April 13, 2017August 17, 2026 By Matthew Garrott Settling for Average Capital Group is pushing back hard against the passive investing crowd. They make the case that some basic screens (low expenses, manager investing in their own fund, etc) can reveal good managers. I agree with that. The screens I use at Fairway are kind of hilariously basic… Read more
Manager Skill vs Luck Pick Good Funds Posted on October 25, 2016August 17, 2026 By Matthew Garrott The Wall Street Journal and the financial community have been abuzz about passive investing. I wrote about settling for average and outrunning a bear via active management previously. The newest argument for choosing active management over passive is that investors should choose ‘good’ managers, not average or bad managers. Why… Read more
Manager Skill vs Luck Active Versus Passive in a Down Market Posted on October 23, 2016August 17, 2026 By Matthew Garrott The Wall Street Journal has been publishing articles about passive investing recently. Many of these articles look like they are pro-passive, but are written by active management shops looking to damn passive with faint praise. My last post addressed the ‘settle for average returns’ fallacy. The second argument I often… Read more
Manager Skill vs Luck Why Settle for Average? Posted on October 21, 2016August 17, 2026 By Matthew Garrott With the recent flood of Wall Street Journal articles about passive investing, now is a good time to review the space. Money is pouring into firms like Vanguard and iShares, the leaders in the indexing revolution. Investors are seeing that despite perennial declarations of a “stock-picker’s market”, active managers consistently… Read more