November 2019

Goldilocks

Goldilocks and the Three Bulls

My monthly commentary for Fairway mentions three uncertainties: the trade conflict with China, Brexit, and the Fed.  One way to look at it is through the lens of the beloved children’s tale of Goldilocks.  I am breaking one of my rules by assigning human personality to the market, but if pressed I’ll just say Goldilocks doesn’t represent the market so much as market sentiment.  This is a total cop out and market sentiment is such a hazy metric that it can mean anything.  Whether the sentiment indicators are positive or negative, they fit any narrative as you can say it agrees with your thesis or you can say it’s a contra-indicator – like when your dentist starts talking about pot stocks.  Anyways, let’s not overthink this.  It’s the weekend. Goldilocks The market has led a charmed decade (granted this is following a crash) despite experts’ best efforts at predicting the…