News Stripped Posted on August 5, 2016 By Matt It’s been five years since the United States was stripped of its AAA credit rating by Standard and Poors. Reports of the downgrade were filled with an array of worst case scenarios. There was worry that this would push up borrowing costs. The 10-year was at 2.33% in 2011. It… Read more
News Fire hose Posted on August 2, 2016 By Matt My last post was about uncertainty and volatility and how even in a low vol environment like today, marketers will magnify feelings of uncertainty to sell the product of the month. Regardless of the statistical fact that volatility is historically low, we as humans seem to be as pessimistic as… Read more
News Uncertainty Posted on July 29, 2016 By Matt 90% of the email pitches I have gotten this year lament increased uncertainty or volatility in the markets. That leaves me scratching my head. The idea that this year’s volatility has been problematic is laughable. The VIX is at 12.16 (as of 7/29/2016), which is actually abnormally low. This measure… Read more
News Brexit Posted on June 24, 2016June 24, 2016 By Matt Freaking out about the Brexit? Keep calm and carry on. Investors should control what they can control. Events like the referendum vote or the upcoming US Presidential election fall outside of that realm. Today’s market tantrum is not in reaction to any fundamental change. It is an emotional reaction to… Read more
Investing Where’s Your Parade? Posted on June 22, 2016June 22, 2016 By Matt Cleveland toasts the NBA champion Cavaliers today. The victory parade marks the end of a grueling season filled with ups and downs. There were challenges on and off the court. Some were very real (making a coaching change partway through the season). Some were manufactured (the drama around Kevin Love… Read more
Due Diligence Six Degrees Posted on May 20, 2016 By Matt There’s a theory/urban legend that everyone is just six degrees of separation from knowing every other person on the planet. I prefer the Six Degrees of Kevin Bacon theory that every actor is six degrees (or less) removed from working with Kevin Bacon. For example, Sean Connery is two degrees… Read more
News Cutting Corners Posted on May 9, 2016 By Matt If cutting corners in business is bad, cutting corners when your business is selling sketchy loans means disaster as Lending Club CEO Renaud Laplanche just found out. The stock is down huge today and the CEO resigned in light of news that Lending Club didn’t deliver what it had promised… Read more
News McKinsey & Co Declare New Normal Posted on April 28, 2016 By Matt Well it’s officially over. The golden era of investing is no more, at least according to McKinsey & Company’s latest research. “The forces that have driven exceptional investment returns over the past 30 years are weakening, and even reversing. It may be time for investors to lower their expectations.” According… Read more
News Wisdom vs Intelligence Posted on April 19, 2016 By Matt For investors, it’s more valuable to be wise than intelligent. The investment world is littered with the carcasses of funds run by the ‘smartest guys in the room’. In the investing ecosystem, intelligence is a given. Ivy League credentials saturate fund manager bios. Sophisticated quantitative models crunch numbers while algorithms trade… Read more
Opinion I Want to Know Where the Gold At Posted on March 17, 2016 By Matt Happy Saint Patrick’s Day! It seems like reporters go out of their way to find the craziest people to put on camera for a story. It certainly seems to be the case in the financial entertainment community where you can find perma-bear hucksters given the same regard as respected economists… Read more