June 2016

Brexit

Freaking out about the Brexit?  Keep calm and carry on.  Investors should control what they can control.  Events like the referendum vote or the upcoming US Presidential election fall outside of that realm. Today’s market tantrum is not in reaction to any fundamental change. It is an emotional reaction to the unexpected.  Consensus expert opinion (and bookmaker odds) are suddenly fallible, a revelation to our self-appointed betters (and bettors) who predict doom at every turn.  When I went to bed last night around 1am, futures indicated a 700 point drop in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, or almost 4%.  Why was I awake at 1am?  I was fascinated that right along with my favorite personalities on Twitter, former child-star Lindsay Lohan was live tweeting the referendum results.  This was a strong indicator of the level of hyperbole I expected today.  I was not disappointed. So let’s get the madness out…


Where’s Your Parade?

Cleveland toasts the NBA champion Cavaliers today.  The victory parade marks the end of a grueling season filled with ups and downs.  There were challenges on and off the court.  Some were very real (making a coaching change partway through the season).  Some were manufactured (the drama around Kevin Love from selfies to Banana Republic modeling).  In the end, the team came together and won the whole damn thing, ending Cleveland’s championship drought.  We face similar challenges as investors.  We won’t win every game (and sometimes the folks with the “best” records come up short when it counts).  We will run into challenges real and imagined.  There will be 20%+ drawdowns in the stock market.  The media will do its best to worry us, giving low probability hypothetical disasters unwarranted exposure.  At the end of your investing journey, where’s your parade?  It ain’t coming. There’s no parade.  There’s no medal.  You don’t…