Opinion

4 Things I’m Watching

My last post was one year ago.  The topics dominating headlines have changed (other than the pandemic), but what hasn’t changed is uncertainty.  The longer I’m in this business, the more I realize that uncertainty is always present.  That is, it’s a present-tense issue.  Uncertainty is misremembered in hindsight.  Things tend to look obvious and follow a cause-and-effect pattern after we know the outcomes.  The future is also less uncertain than the present.  The market goes up in the long run.  Technology and medicine will continue to advance.  The world will be a better place.  The present is incredibly uncertain, though.  Real and imagined threats are everywhere.  As we have access to more and more data, the more uncertain the present feels. There are four major themes I’m following that blanket most of my present-tense concerns over uncertainty: The Federal Reserve, Inflation, Politics, and the Pandemic. The Fed There is…

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Goldilocks and the Three Bulls

My monthly commentary for Fairway mentions three uncertainties: the trade conflict with China, Brexit, and the Fed.  One way to look at it is through the lens of the beloved children’s tale of Goldilocks.  I am breaking one of my rules by assigning human personality to the market, but if pressed I’ll just say Goldilocks doesn’t represent the market so much as market sentiment.  This is a total cop out and market sentiment is such a hazy metric that it can mean anything.  Whether the sentiment indicators are positive or negative, they fit any narrative as you can say it agrees with your thesis or you can say it’s a contra-indicator – like when your dentist starts talking about pot stocks.  Anyways, let’s not overthink this.  It’s the weekend. Goldilocks The market has led a charmed decade (granted this is following a crash) despite experts’ best efforts at predicting the…