Where Are We in the Current Cycle?

Glad you asked!  This is such a great question.  It makes you look smart for asking it.  You recognize that the market is cyclical and your question implies that you’re so savvy that you can sync your investing to take advantage of the market’s ebbs and flows.  You’re a force of nature and I commend you for it, especially since you preceded the question with several minutes critiquing the Federal Reserve and expressing concern about today’s geopolitical situation. I love that you asked me because now it’s a chance for me to cite a bunch of bullshit statistics that prop up my world-view and make us all feel better about ourselves.  Best of all, no answer I give is going to suggest taking any real action on your part.  It’s a win-win. So Where Are We in the Current Cycle? Definitely the late innings, but it may only be the…

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The Price of Admission

Everything is down this year except cash and municipal bonds. Headlines are dismal.  Volatility is rampant.  This isn’t some freak event.  It’s the price of admission. Taken as a whole, yes it is unusual to have almost every asset class down in a calendar year.  What’s not unusual is the negative movements themselves.  Stocks go down.  Bonds go down.  Commodities go down.  Real estate goes down.  They will also go back up.   While the S&P 500 only got a bear kiss (down 19%, not a full 20% bear), we’ll eventually see another full-on bear market.  The longer we go without one, though, the more hysterical the news will be.  Each year that passes without a bear market is a year that experienced, seasoned folks retire and bright-eyed neophytes file in.  We’ve had ten years of this.  If your financial advisor is younger than 32, they haven’t navigated a bear market. …