Where Are We in the Current Cycle?

Glad you asked!  This is such a great question.  It makes you look smart for asking it.  You recognize that the market is cyclical and your question implies that you’re so savvy that you can sync your investing to take advantage of the market’s ebbs and flows.  You’re a force of nature and I commend you for it, especially since you preceded the question with several minutes critiquing the Federal Reserve and expressing concern about today’s geopolitical situation. I love that you asked me because now it’s a chance for me to cite a bunch of bullshit statistics that prop up my world-view and make us all feel better about ourselves.  Best of all, no answer I give is going to suggest taking any real action on your part.  It’s a win-win. So Where Are We in the Current Cycle? Definitely the late innings, but it may only be the…

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Happy New Year

To kick off the new year, I’m sharing my investing philosophy.  Some concepts are simple while others more complex.  They are not immutable rules or laws or instructions, just context I use for investing.  Whether I’m doing due diligence on a money manager or listening to a pundit talk his book on CNBC, it’s being processed through this filter. Most of my philosophy is derived from the folks I work with.  There is a kind of collective gut feeling around most of these concepts that we have, but I like to put things like this in writing and keep it where I can see it.  It can act as a refresher (“oh yeah, that’s why we do that”) and as a record of how my thinking on investing has evolved. Investing should be done in a manner that is:     Risk-Aware – Know yourself and prepare for what’s likely.   …